I totally agree with Michelle
Applying what she's said to the Canterbury earthquakes:
Issues that could arise from applying a recovery management process can be infinite and unpredictable but essentially the relate to 3 root causes are; people, process and communication.
If the plan that is set up is not followed confusion occurs.
This was the case with the managed home repair programme. Communication following the September 2010 was not clear whether managed repairs were optional or mandatory. Because it wasn't clear in 2010, it remained unclear and muddled throughout 2011 and beyond.
If the plan that is set up is flawed and the people driving it are rigid in their approach then the management process will not be fit for purpose.
Again, this happened - even though people opted out of EQC's managed repair programme, EQC did not release the money to the beneficiary to pay directly for the repairs. This resulted in the homeowners having to send the invoices to EQC for processing and payment.
This added layer in some cases overrode the customers' willingness to pay and created cash-flow problems for the contractors carrying out the repairs.
Instead of enabling homes to be repaired in an efficient and timely manner, the process created inefficiencies and muddied contractual obligations leading to disputes that required resolution.
If communication across any stage of the plan or process fails then recovery will be delayed or even stalled.
The communications were different depending on who the individual or group were being communicated to. The home owner then experienced many messages from many parties leading to frustration.
The same issues have arisen from our response to COVID:
If the plan that is set up is not followed confusion occurs.
The plan has been followed but we're now two years with the same plan, that has led to disengagement by some within Aotearoa.
Unfortunately, this international pandemic has identified the lack of influence the World Health Organization (WHO) has with other international organisations or individual countries. As a result, different countries have taken different approaches leading to some nations managing the pandemic well, some managing it badly, and some no better able to manage the pandemic than any other issue it's had to face (developing nations).
As such it's very likely that WHO's pandemic plan was probably extremely comprehensive. But WHO is not set up to be the deliverer of the plan and is reliant on its member nations.
So individual nations were left to fall back on their pandemic plans (if they had one). Aotearoa used its Pandemic Flu Plan as its base. With hindsight, there may be a discussion about the flu pandemic plan was fit for purpose, with a domino effect.
If the plan that is set up is flawed and the people driving it are rigid in their approach then the management process will not be fit for purpose.
I'd also argue that there was a lot of rigidity and a lack of diversity and exclusion in the execution of the plan. The Waitangi Tribunal ruled in December 2021 that the Ministry of Health was institutionally racist in its response. This is because the first lockdown placed huge social and economic stress on the communities with the least income and then the introduction of age based vaccination with the oldest first, didn't account for the mortality rate for Māori being 10 years younger than for non-Māori (and there is also a mortality differential between Pacific and non-Pacific), so vaccinating the over 70s first meant that there were fewer Māori and Pacific peoples being vaccinated, which them impacted on second vaccination timing and most importantly booster shots.
As a result, original COVID (pre vaccination) was less affected by the structural inequity in age distribution - Māori/non-Māori, Pacific/non-Pacific, All New Zealanders, the appearance of Delta began to identify the structural issues, but they've really come into play with the vaccination programme and management of Omicron.
And because those at the original pandemic table lacked diversity and excluded Māori/Pacific/disabled/remote rural communities, we ended up with a white Wellington response.
As a result, New Zealand's ability to 'open' up that was originally planned for mid-January 2022 (for those in Australia) and from mid-February 2022 (for those in the rest of the world) was suspended. This suspension has created economic, and social hardships. The rigidity was best highlighted by the journalist Catherine Bellis and trying to get back from Afghanistan.
If communication across any stage of the plan or process fails then recovery will be delayed or even stalled.
I think as a nation, communication throughout 2020 and into 2021 was exemplary. However, as 2021 wore on and we moved to 2022, communication effectiveness has declined (if it ever existed effectively for those outside New Zealand).
I think this why we're beginning to see frustration levels rising. Business groups and sectors are struggling to get answers, Māori and Pacific representatives are struggling to get answers, and the lack of communication of what the end point is and when it'll be reached means that the common goal/purpose is now losing out.
Therefore the new normal will be groups of mentally traumatised people, those who've felt that throughout the whole pandemic they've lost their autonomy, Māori who lost their autonomy 182 years ago noting nothing has changed, and many businesses requiring long-term financial support from the public purse as the cash in circulation from private sources (including individuals) grinds to a halt.
I can see the recovery period from COVID lasting for at least two decades and beyond.